Q&A Updated

Jiang Xueqin Called Trump's 2024 Win in April 2024, and Was Right

Yes. Professor Jiang Xueqin predicted in April 2024 that Donald Trump would win the November 2024 presidential election, and that prediction (P001) is marked confirmed. For anyone asking who predicted Trump 2024 before the campaign was settled, it is one of the earliest dated calls in this tracker's archive. It is also one of the clearest wins in a record that is still mostly unresolved.

The April 2024 call

The prediction is logged as P001: "Trump will win the 2024 Presidential election," category US Elections, timeline November 2024, first made in April 2024. It was extracted from one of Jiang's YouTube lectures, part of the 184-lecture archive this site monitors. The full entry, with the source lecture and the timestamp where the claim appears, is on the P001 page, and the broader set of election calls is collected on the Trump 2024 predictions page.

The prediction was confirmed when the November 2024 election results were reported by major news outlets. Timing matters here. April 2024 was months before the Biden–Trump debate, before Biden left the race, and before the conventions. Polling at the time showed a close contest.

The reasoning Jiang gave

We do not reproduce a quotation here that we cannot verify word for word from the transcript. The exact wording of Jiang's reasoning, as he gave it in the lecture, is on the P001 page alongside the source link, and readers should check it there rather than rely on a paraphrase. What the tracker records is the claim itself: a Trump victory in November 2024, stated as a forecast rather than a hedge.

The VP picks: one hit, one miss

Jiang's election-season commentary went beyond the top-line call. In May 2024 he made two predictions about Trump's running mate, both due at the August 2024 Republican Convention:

So the same lecture cycle that produced a correct winner call also produced a miss on the running mate. Jiang's framing of Vance as an "alternative" pick is looser than a flat prediction, which is worth noting when scoring it. The Haley call is a clean miss.

How the broader record looks

A single correct call does not establish a forecaster. As of 2026-10-27, the system tracks 463 predictions from 184 source lectures (183 transcribed). The breakdown:

Headline accuracy, measured as confirmed out of confirmed plus wrong, is 77%. That is a strong figure, but the denominator is only 22. Fewer than 5% of tracked predictions have resolved, so the percentage can move substantially as more come due. Resolved predictions are also not a random sample: those with near-term, checkable outcomes resolve first, and long-range claims sit in the pending pile.

What comes next on the Trump thread

Several of Jiang's open predictions extend the 2024 call into later years, and none are resolved:

The 2026 midterm calls, including P391 and the claims about ICE and federal control of elections (P370, P380), are scheduled to resolve soon after this post's date. They will test whether the 2024 call reflected a repeatable method or one good read.

The answer

Jiang Xueqin made the Trump 2024 prediction on YouTube in April 2024, well ahead of the outcome, and it was confirmed. His running-mate calls went one for two. On the full record, he is right more often than wrong among resolved predictions, but only 22 of 463 have resolved, so the track record is early. The primary-source entry for the call is P001, and this page updates as the pending predictions come due.

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