What's moving in Jiang Xueqin's predictions right now

What's moving right now

🔥 0 surging 13 moving 28 quiet 41 tracked

Updated July 4, 2026

🔥 The mover · most active right now

“Nuclear weapons will NOT be used in the Iran war”

↗ moving toward this The news right now runs toward this happening.

← away · less likelyundecidedmore likely · toward →

🔥 6 stories this week

Steady this week

How loud the chatter is — a loud topic is not a likely outcome.

Evidence pointing toward it

Trump claims victory over Iran, but deal is silent on nuclear weaponsThe Washington Post · Jun 16Read
Trump promised no Iranian nukes. His deal may never do that.Politico · Jun 15Read

Also moving this week

“Russia will win the war in Ukraine”

Our read: Likely Wrong

4 this week

↘ against

Bill Ackman Says Ukraine 'Will Win the War' With Russia Because Tech Beats Manpower: Here's What PredictiBenzinga · Jul 3Read

“The US will send ground troops into Iran”

Our read: Likely Wrong

2 this week

↔ contested

President Donald Trump Refuses to Rule Out Deploying US Ground Troops to IranNews On AIR · Jul 3Read

“The global economy will suffer greatly over the next few months (from March 2026)”

Our read: Likely Confirmed

2 this week

• no clear lean

What’s happening this week in economics?Deloitte · Jun 30Read

“The American Empire will fall -- defeat in Iran marks the end”

0 this week

↗ toward

Our Allies Are Wondering Whether Supporting the American War Machine Is Worth ItThe New York Times · Jun 24Read

“China will NOT invade Taiwan”

1 this week

↗ toward

The Three Nevers: To Invade Taiwan, China Would Have to Make Military History ThriceWar on the Rocks · Jul 1Read

“Europe will go to war with Russia”

1 this week

↗ toward

Europe rethinks how it fights war as Russian threat loomsReuters · Jun 29Read

Quiet

28 predictions with no notable news this week

“Trump will try to stay in office for the rest of his life, possibly running as VP in 2028 with Don Jr. as president” · US Elections
“Second American Civil War is very likely -- a series of violent episodes over 10-50 years” · US Domestic
“If the US sends ground troops, it will lose the war catastrophically -- troops become trapped hostages” · US-Iran War
“The American strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will NOT work against Iran” · US-Iran War
“Saudi Arabia is pushing the US toward war with Iran -- it cannot survive without US fighting Iran for it” · US-Iran War
“Dubai is dead as a global financial/luxury city in the long term” · Middle East
“Dubai will go bankrupt” · Middle East
“The entire GCC (including Saudi Arabia) will eventually collapse” · Middle East
“Israel becomes the dominant Middle East power (Empire of Israel / Pax Judaica)” · Middle East
“Global surge of anti-Semitism will compel Jews worldwide to return to Israel” · Middle East
“The world will eventually unite against Greater Israel” · Middle East
“The Ukraine war will NOT end -- Putin will drag it on without expanding it” · Russia/Ukraine
“The war in Ukraine will shift to Odessa -- final NATO-Russia battle” · Russia/Ukraine
“NATO will eventually send its own troops to fight Russia (in Ukraine)” · Russia/Ukraine
“Putin is preparing Russia for Total War to reshape Russian society” · Russia/Ukraine
“Russia will defend Iran -- cannot afford for Iran to fall” · Russia/Ukraine
“Western Ukraine will become a 'welfare state for the European Union'” · Russia/Ukraine
“The EU will be dead in about five years (by ~2029)” · Europe
“Europe becomes pro-Russian after civil wars/revolutions” · Europe
“Turkey will be drawn into Ukraine war, collapse internally, allow Russia to take control” · Turkey
“Turkey will collapse as a nation-state after Erdogan leaves power” · Turkey
“US-China rapprochement (improved relations)” · China
“America will embargo/blockade China” · China
“Japan's economy would collapse in 8-9 months if Strait of Hormuz stays closed” · Global Economy