🔥 Evidence Radar

What's moving right now

🔥 12 surging 80 moving 300 quiet 380 open calls tracked

Updated October 30, 2026

🔥 The mover · most active right now

“Lula will lose Brazil's presidential election to Flavio Bolsonaro.”

↘ moving against this The news right now runs against this happening.
← away · less likely← less likelyundecidedmore likely · toward →more likely →
🔥 20 stories this week

Surging · ~4.0× the usual pace

How loud the chatter is — a loud topic is not a likely outcome.

Evidence pulling against it
Also moving this week

“Anthropic's IPO in November will fail.”

20 this week
↗ toward

Anthropic vows to do the right thing. Can it succeed where Google failed?The Boston Globe · Oct 29Read

“Brad Bradford will win the mayoral election in Toronto.”

20 this week
↘ against

A mayoral race with 2 Chows caused ballot confusion in Toronto. Can that be fixed?CBC · Oct 29Read

“Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin will meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen and announce a global AI governance board.”

20 this week
↗ toward

Zelenskyy On A Possible Trump-Xi-Putin Meeting: I Wouldn’t Want This To Be A New “Yalta”uatv.ua · Oct 29Read

“Russia will win the war in Ukraine”

Our read: Likely Wrong
13 this week
↗ toward

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29, 2026Institute for the Study of War · Oct 30Read

“The US ground invasion of Iran will begin as early as October 2026, likely delayed until after the November 2026 midterm elections.”

14 this week
↗ toward

US warns allies to prepare for possible Iran strikes, retaliation after midterm electionsThe New Indian Express · Oct 29Read

“Trump is likely to run for president again in 2028.”

14 this week
↗ toward

Kilmeade, Hume say Vance ‘not as popular as he thinks he is’ ahead of 2028The Hill · Oct 29Read

Recently settled · off the radar, on the record

Once a call is proven true or false it leaves the radar and joins the scored record. It stays here for 90 days so you can see what just came true — or didn't.

Quiet
300 predictions with no notable news this week