Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P368
JD Vance will be discarded by Trump well before 2028.
Surging · 6 stories in the news this week · evidence toward (cuts against our Likely Wrong call) live radar →
What Jiang said
“Vance will be discarded before well before 2028”
Analysis
Responding to a question about Vance acting as 'Brutus' to Trump, he says Vance isn't positioned for that role and will simply be dropped.
Status history
- 2026-07-18 · Pending (claude_extract)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Wrong
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
Recent headlines show Trump actively promoting Vance as his 2028 successor and urging donors to back him, the opposite of discarding him, though the window remains open until 2028. · Source: Trump turns to Vance as his successor and tells donors to back him in 2028: report - The Independent (Thu, 06 Aug 2026 07:00:00 GMT)