Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P043
Russia will win the war in Ukraine
Surging · 13 stories in the news this week · evidence toward (cuts against our Likely Wrong call) live radar →
What Jiang said
“does that make sense because Russia is about to win the war in Ukraine um and if there's a war in Iran then United States will be forced to divert resources away from Ukraine into Iran”
Analysis
Speaker said 'Russia is about to win the war in Ukraine' and 'the war is almost over' (from May 2024 perspective).
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
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2026-06-18 ·
Pending → Likely Wrong
(glm)
G7 leaders, retired U.S. generals, and front-line reporting all indicate Russia is not winning while Ukraine retakes territory, so evidence trends against the prediction, though the war remains ongoing and the window is still open. · Source: Zelenskiy says G7 agreed Russia is not winning war, discussed more sanctions - The Straits Times (Tue, 16 Jun 2026 12:39:07 GMT)